Black Sea Wheat Shortage Drives Global Prices Higher

Global wheat prices may remain under upward pressure through at least the end of 2026 due to reduced supplies from the Black Sea region.

The need for major importers to replenish their stocks is also a contributing factor, according to UkrAgroConsult. Buyers in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa have delayed alternative purchases in recent months, but available inventories are gradually declining.

The restrictions on Black Sea supplies have already had a significant impact on the market. Chicago wheat futures have risen by around 40% from June lows and reached their highest level in three and a half years.

Russia's wheat exports in September may total around 1 million tons, compared with 5 million tons a year earlier. Ukraine is also expected to export around 1 million tons, half the volume shipped in September last year.