Brazil Set to Produce Record Soybeans Amid Corn Export Decline

Brazil is on track to produce a record soybean crop in the upcoming season, according to StoneX estimates. The company forecasts that Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop will reach 183.36 million tons, which is virtually unchanged from its previous forecast of 183.5 million tons.

This would represent a 0.4% increase over the previous season. Soybean planting has been progressing relatively normally across most producing regions, alleviating concerns about delays to second-crop corn planting. However, rainfall and temperatures will remain crucial factors for soybean production through the end of the year.

In related news, StoneX left its forecast for Brazil's first-crop corn production in 2026/27 unchanged at 29.3 million tons, which is up 2.4% from the previous season. Growth is expected to be driven by a larger planted area and favorable weather conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, where production is estimated at 6.7 million tons.

However, StoneX has cut its forecast for Brazilian corn exports in the MY 2025/26 by 2 million tons to 40 million tons, which is below the 41.6 million tons exported in the previous season. This revision reflects increased competition from Argentina following a record crop, less attractive prices at Brazilian ports, and higher domestic consumption.