Brazil's soybean planting reached 66% of the projected area during the first week of November, according to the National Supply Co. (Conab). The agency forecasts a total output of 181.6 million tonnes for the 2026-27 marketing year, though it cautioned about potential weather risks. Conab's second survey for the season estimates that 49.3 million hectares will be sown, with an expected yield of 3,683 kg per hectare. In Mato Grosso, the leading soybean-producing state, 95.6% of the area has already been planted.
Conab described the early development of soybeans as broadly favorable but noted that October's weather patterns created varying conditions across producing regions. The agency highlighted irregular rainfall, high temperatures, and El Niño effects as grounds for caution regarding the crops' productive potential. Despite these risks, the projection represents a 0.7% increase over the 2025-26 season.
For all crops in 2026-27, including soybeans, corn, rice, and wheat, Conab projected an output of 366.1 million tonnes, slightly lower than the 367.1 million tonnes estimated a month earlier. The planted area is expected to expand by 1.9 million hectares year over year to 85.3 million hectares. Corn recorded notable growth in planted area, up 4.9% to 23.7 million hectares, with total production projected at 148 million tonnes.
Corn export projections for the 2025-26 crop year were revised downward to 40.9 million tonnes, a 6.8% decrease from the October survey. Conab attributed this to the arrival of the North American corn crop, market share gains by Argentina, and weaker demand from China. For 2026-27, corn exports are projected at about 43 million tonnes.
Rice production is projected at 10.6 million tonnes, with a slight 0.8% reduction in the area to be sown, influenced by a 2.4% decline in irrigated area. Wheat production is heading toward a 33.2% drop, with a projected harvest of 5.3 million tonnes, primarily due to reduced area and unfavorable weather conditions, especially in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.