Brazil Trade Surplus Forecast Exceeds Last Year's Result on Commodity Boost

Brazil's trade surplus is expected to exceed last year's result in 2026, thanks to stronger-than-expected exports driven by a solid soybean harvest and higher oil prices. The median market forecast in the Central Bank's Focus survey now stands at $76.9 billion for 2026, up from $68.1 billion in 2025.

The Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) is more optimistic, raising its previous surplus forecast to $94.1 billion from $68.2 billion. The government also made a revision of similar magnitude in July, lifting its official estimate to $90 billion from $72.1 billion three months earlier.

The stronger export performance is led by higher prices and volumes for commodities including oil, soybeans, and beef. Oil exports are expected to reach $58 billion this year, with a 7% increase in volumes and a 22% rise in prices. Soybean exports could also set a record, reaching over $50 billion.