Brazil's Soybean Farmers Caught in Crossfire of US-China Trade Politics
Brazil's presidential election has become entangled with US-China trade politics over soybean trade. The country's largest agricultural export, soybeans, have been excluded from a recent trade deal between Washington and Beijing.
The agreement reached on September 24 extended a US-China trade truce to January 10, 2027, covering items such as crude soybean oil, corn, cotton, sorghum, and durum wheat. However, whole soybeans for food and crushing were left out of the deal.
China has pledged to buy at least 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually through 2028, but trade press tracking actual purchases put committed volume for the 2026/27 crop year at only about 10.2 million tonnes so far.
Brazilian soybean growers are in an odd position as every tonne China buys from American farmers under the new truce is a tonne it is not buying from Brazil. Brazil's exporters have been the biggest beneficiaries of US-China trade friction, but now face uncertainty with a possible second Trump term and closer US-China agricultural ties.