Brent Breaks Below $100, But Surges Back on China Fuel Halt and US Military Presence

Oil prices have steadied after one of the sharpest reversals of the week. Brent, which briefly broke below $100, has surged 4% to above $102 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) held near $93.

China halted fuel exports in October, removing flexible supply from an already stretched market. This, combined with the US's expanding military presence in the Middle East, turned the story from 'crude glut' to 'product tightness + shipping risk,' which can keep Brent supported even if crude inventories rise.

Analysts describe the latest energy shock as increasingly a refining crisis rather than a crude crisis. Years of lost refining capacity and disruption from the Iran and Ukraine wars have led to extreme product margins, which can pull more crude into refineries even when headline crude inventories look comfortable.