Brent Crude Forecast Rises to $89.05 per Barrel Amid Ongoing Gulf Disruption
Analysts have raised their 2026 oil price forecasts due to ongoing disruption in Gulf exports, which is expected to offset concerns over demand growth. The September survey of 30 economists and analysts forecast that Brent crude would average $89.05 a barrel in 2026 and U.S. crude $83.90 a barrel.
The previous month's poll had projected an average price of $85.08 for Brent crude, while the current forecast is up from $80.20 for WTI. The forecasts range from $77.27 to $97.60 for Brent prices, with several analysts warning that significant upside risks exist if conflict continues in the region.
Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank, said that a resolution to the conflict within the next three to six months is unlikely. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, which is in line with their 2025 average.
China's stockpile buffer has begun to shrink as its imports have risen during the past two months, reaching nearly 9 million bpd in August. Analysts expect Chinese buying to strengthen from current levels as inventories are finite and cannot cover the whole winter.