Brent Crude Poised to Surge Amid US-Iran Tensions and Supply Constraints
Brent crude oil prices are anticipated to remain above US$100 per barrel, with potential for further increases if tensions between the United States and Iran persist, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. BMI Research, a division of Fitch Solutions, has revised its Brent price forecasts, pushing back expectations for a US-Iran deal and easing of Hormuz disruptions to early 2027.
The revised outlook projects Brent futures to average US$107 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and US$112 in the first quarter of 2027. This adjustment is driven by rising crude demand and ongoing supply constraints, which are expected to reduce market buffers and heighten exposure to geopolitical risks and unforeseen production disruptions.
BMI Research highlights that the combination of increasing demand and supply-side limitations could leave Brent prices more vulnerable to sudden price swings due to geopolitical escalations or unexpected production outages.