Brent Crude Price Hike Masks Hidden Risks in Global Energy Markets

The Brent crude oil price is approaching $100 per barrel, but the real concern lies not in this psychological threshold. Instead, experts point to physical flows and systemic risks arising from constrained transportation, declining inventories, and energy inflation.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that the average volume of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz was only 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, down nearly 80% from 21.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The recent shipping data has deteriorated further, with the average daily number of commercial vessels passing through the strait dropping to around 10 over the past ten days, and as low as two on Saturday.

Alternative routes exist, but their transit distances, transportation costs, and actual capacity cannot fully replicate normal passage through the strait. The disabling of Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) leads to an underestimation of actual transport volumes based on visible vessel data.