Brent Crude Prices May Remain Near $80 per Barrel for 12 Months: JM Financial

Brent crude prices may remain near $80 per barrel for at least 12 months due to inventory replenishment demand and ongoing geopolitical supply risks, according to a report by JM Financial. The brokerage cited data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) showing that global oil inventories have dropped 1,000 to 1,200 million barrels since the West Asia crisis began.

This has created a substantial restocking demand of 2 to 3 million barrels per day over the coming year. The IEA also estimated that global oil demand may contract by 1.5 million barrels per day in CY26 to 103.3 million barrels per day before rebounding by 2.4 million barrels per day in CY27.

For Indian upstream producers, JM Financial noted that prevailing stock valuations for ONGC and Oil India are discounting net crude realisations of only $55 to $60 per barrel. The brokerage said that every $1 per barrel increase in global crude prices enhances the earnings per share of both state-run explorers by 1 to 2 per cent.