Brent Crude Prices to Stay High Despite Potential Strait Reopening

JP Morgan analysts expect Brent crude prices to remain in the low $100s for most of 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June. The bank's revised framework assumes that inventory depletion will force the Strait to reopen by June 1, following a credible announcement from both sides.

The oil market is expected to stay tight due to accelerating inventory draws and logistical bottlenecks. OECD commercial inventories are approaching operational stress levels, which could push prices higher in the summer months.

JP Morgan's revised forecast suggests Brent crude will average $96 per barrel in 2026, with quarterly averages of $103 in Q2, $104 in Q3, and $98 in Q4. In 2027, producers are expected to maximize output after the Strait reopens, potentially leading to oversupply from September 2026.