Brent Crude Stuck at $100 Amid Middle East Conflict

Oil prices have been fluctuating around $100 per barrel in recent weeks, with Brent crude reaching as high as $107 on September 10. This surge is largely due to a war-related supply disruption in the Middle East.

The conflict began when the US and Israel struck Iran on February 28, causing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to nearly stop. The International Energy Agency described this as the 'largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.'

However, a commodity strategist at TD Securities estimates that Middle East flows have recovered to about 80% of their pre-war pace.

Another pressure point is Yemen, where Houthi fighters have seized Perim Island and declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. This has forced the kingdom to send crude through the Suez Canal or around Africa to reach Asian customers.

US-Iranian negotiators are meeting in New York as part of the UN General Assembly, but analysts see limited room for oil prices to fall unless physical flows improve.