Brent Oil Prices Forecast to Climb Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Brent crude oil prices are projected to remain above $100 per barrel, with potential for further increases if tensions between the United States and Iran persist, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. This critical chokepoint for global oil supplies could become a major flashpoint if the standoff continues.

BMI Research, a division of Fitch Solutions, has revised its forecasts upward, anticipating that a preliminary U.S.-Iran deal and any easing of Hormuz-related disruptions will now not occur until early 2027. The firm now expects Brent futures to average $107 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $112 in the first quarter of 2027.

The upward revision is driven by rising crude demand and supply constraints, which are gradually depleting physical market buffers. This leaves Brent prices increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical escalations and unexpected production outages, according to BMI Research.