Brent Pessimism Revisited: A Closer Look at Oil Flows

The recent recovery of Middle East crude exports to pre-war levels has led some to assume that the Brent futures market is too pessimistic. However, a closer look at the numbers reveals a more complex picture.

JPMorgan estimates that Middle East crude exports have reached 17.5 mb/d, or roughly 98% of their pre-war levels. This is a significant increase from earlier estimates, but Strait of Hormuz flows remain near 13 mb/d, down from the pre-war level of 17.1 mb/d.

Russian diesel exports are down by 71%, while Gulf flows have decreased to just 390k b/d. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to export roughly 1.2 mb/d, despite debating curbs on its own oil production.