Brent Price Hits Four-Month High as Middle East Exports Recover

Oil prices have edged higher as Middle East crude exports continue to recover towards prewar levels, easing some immediate supply concerns despite persistent risks around regional shipping and the US-Iran conflict.

The US crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week, with commercial crude stocks increasing by 900,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Major banks have raised their oil-price forecasts as the Iran conflict and risk of renewed supply disruptions remain unresolved, with a Wall Street Journal survey of projections from banks including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley putting Brent at an average of $90.22 a barrel in the fourth quarter and WTI at $85.47.

Middle East crude exports have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day on a 10-day average, or 98% of prewar levels, J.P. Morgan analysts said, with around 40% of those exports bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and using alternative routes such as the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea.