Britain’s gas security remains a pressing concern, despite the recent approval of the Jackdaw field in the North Sea. The country still imports nearly 60% of its gas, and a last-minute deal with Belgium aims to ensure supply stability through a connecting pipeline this winter. The agreement, described as a belt-and-braces measure, is designed to handle a “low-probability but high-impact stress event,” such as a prolonged cold snap that could disrupt critical infrastructure like the two import terminals in Milford Haven.
The deal will add 10p a month to household bills to maintain the capacity of the Belgian pipeline, ensuring enough gas can be transported quickly if needed. Without this arrangement, Interconnector Limited had warned of reduced capacity due to underutilization last year. While the cost is relatively low, £1.19 per household annually, it highlights the growing risks to Britain’s gas security.
Ofgem emphasizes that the Belgian deal is only a temporary fix and does not eliminate the need for long-term measures. The government is urged to act swiftly, considering options like more gas storage, additional LNG terminals, or both. The National Energy System Operator (Neso) previously warned of an emerging risk to gas supply security by 2030, but the government’s response has been slow, with no clear timetable for implementing necessary reforms.
The winter outlook report from National Gas indicates a positive short-term forecast, thanks in part to the Belgian deal. However, it warns that peak demand remains high due to gas-fired power generation during low renewable output periods. Both Ofgem and National Gas stress the importance of government action to address enduring challenges in the years ahead. Without swift infrastructure development, Britain risks facing a gas security crunch by 2030.