Canada's Grain Sector Faces Long Shot at Doubling Non-U.S. Exports

Canada's grain sector faces significant challenges in meeting Prime Minister Mark Carney's goal of doubling non-U.S. exports by 2035. According to Canada's grain monitor, Quorum Corp president Mark Hemmes, this target is unlikely to be achieved within the next decade.

Hemmes believes that doubling east-west rail traffic would require massive investments in locomotives, rail cars, people, and track infrastructure. He also noted that Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City railway are not operating at maximum capacity, but improving their efficiency would still be a significant task.

The Fraser Institute found that over the last 50 years, numerous Canadian governments have implemented programs to reduce Canada's economic dependence on the U.S., but with limited success. Hemmes also pointed out that doubling grain exports would require a corresponding increase in crop production, which is not feasible within a decade.

While things are looking positive for this year's grain shipments, with six million tonnes of bulk grain exported through week seven of the 2026-27 crop year, up from 4.46 million tonnes the same time last year, Hemmes remains skeptical about meeting the ambitious export target.