Canada's Oil Sands Eye 25th Straight Year of Growth Amid Shift to Global Markets

Canada's oil sands are set for their 25th consecutive year of growth in 2026, according to S&P Global Energy. The sector has grown every year but one since 2001, with the exception being the COVID-19-related disruption in 2020. S&P Global Energy projects that oil sands production will average a record 3.5 million barrels per day in 2026, a three percent increase from the prior year.

The alignment of conditions for major investment cycles is seen as distinct, with announced plans for expanded pipeline export capacity and clarification on carbon pricing to 2040. The federal government's focus on eliminating uncertainties to accelerate investment has not been seen in more than a decade. S&P Global Energy estimates that nearly half a million barrels per day of incremental capacity could come forward from previously proposed but unadvanced projects under the right conditions.

Statistics Canada data show mixed results, with oil and gas extraction declining 0.3% in July 2026 due to a 0.7% fall in conventional oil and gas extraction. However, oil sands extraction edged up 0.2%. The shift in energy trade is more durable, with natural gas exports rising 2.7% year over year in July 2026, primarily driven by increases in liquefied natural gas exports to Asia.