Canada's Wheat Output Slumps 11% Amid Scorching Temps and Wet Conditions

Canadian farmers are bracing for a significant drop in wheat production this year. According to Statistics Canada, wheat output is expected to fall by 11% from last year's revised total. The agency's first crop production report of 2026 also estimates that canola production will remain relatively flat at around 22.1 million metric tons, close to the record crop seen in 2025.

The report notes that spring wheat and durum have suffered from recent wet conditions, which can cause bleaching, sprouting, and disease that reduce quality. Analyst Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital attributes the decline in yields to scorching mid-summer temperatures in July, which knocked down yields from what had appeared to be a record crop.

The Canadian government agency's estimate is lower than some analysts expected, but Statscan has a history of raising production estimates between this report and the final revised total. With Canada being the world's largest exporter of canola and durum wheat, the impact on global markets could be significant.