Canadian Oil Sands Production Set for Record High in 2026
Canadian oil sands production is set to reach new heights in 2026, with an estimated average of 3.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd), a record according to S&P Global Energy's latest 10-year production outlook.
This marks a 100,000 bpd increase from the previous year and represents a 3% growth rate.
The upward trend is expected to continue, with production climbing to approximately 3.9 MMbpd by the early 2030s.
Most of this growth will come from optimizing existing operations, but improving investment conditions could lead to new construction projects, potentially adding upside to the forecast.
S&P Global pointed out that factors such as proposed pipeline export capacity increases, changes to carbon pricing, and efforts to accelerate project reviews could influence future investment decisions.
However, new projects would require significant capital and longer development timelines compared to optimizing existing facilities.