Canadian Oil Sands Production Set for Record High in 2026

Canadian oil sands production is on track to hit a record 3.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2026, according to S&P Global Energy's latest 10-year production outlook.

This represents a 100,000 bpd increase from the previous year and a 3% growth rate, with most of the expected growth coming from optimization of existing operations.

S&P Global said improving investment conditions could support a return to new construction, adding potential upside to its longer-term forecast, which sees oil sands production reaching approximately 3.9 MMbpd by the early 2030s.

Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Markets Analyst at S&P Global Energy, stated that 'the question today is not whether the oil sands will continue to grow, but rather how much additional growth could come should new projects once again come forward.'

S&P pointed to several factors that could influence future investment, including proposed increases in pipeline export capacity, changes to carbon pricing, and efforts to accelerate reviews of projects considered in the national interest.