Canadian Oil Sands Production Set for Record High in 2026
Canadian oil sands production is expected to reach a record high of 3.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, according to S&P Global Energy. This marks the 25th consecutive year of growth for the industry, which has seen annual output increase from around 300,000 b/d in 2001.
The forecast represents a 3% increase from 2025 and is attributed to optimization of existing operations rather than major new projects. S&P Global expects production to reach approximately 3.9 million b/d by the early 2030s before plateauing under its current outlook.
Kevin Birn, chief Canadian oil markets analyst at S&P Global Energy, noted that the potential for renewed interest in capacity additions through new construction is creating additional upside to the longer-term outlook. This could be driven by factors such as expanded pipeline export capacity, reduced carbon pricing uncertainty, and changes to fiscal terms for new oil sands projects.