Canola Prices Under Pressure as Harvesting Conditions Improve
Canada's canola and rapeseed prices are under pressure due to improving harvesting conditions and forecasts of a good harvest. According to Statistics Canada, the country's canola yield forecast for the 2026/27 MY has been lowered by 8.3% to 41.8 bushels/acre, but the sowing area is expected to increase by 8.4% compared to the previous year to a record 23.2 million acres.
The increased sowing area and favorable weather conditions are expected to allow the canola harvest to be almost at the level of last year's 22.1 million tons. However, November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange fell 0.2% yesterday to CAD 827/t or $591/t due to delayed canola harvests in Canada caused by excessive rains over the past two weeks.
But warm and dry weather has now set in in the Canadian prairies, which will last another 7-14 days and will allow for faster harvesting. In Saskatchewan, as of September 7, 2026, canola had been harvested on only 9% of the area, while in Manitoba it was 15%, and in Alberta - on 2.4%.
November rapeseed futures in Paris fell 0.6% yesterday to €550.75/t or $635/t, but remain at a high level thanks to a 20% jump in oil prices for the month caused by the blockade of oil exports from Saudi Arabia by the Yemeni Houthis.
The US talks with the Yemeni Houthis cooled oil prices a bit yesterday, and quotes fell by 3.8%. If pressure on the Houthis continues, it could reduce speculative support for rapeseed prices and they will continue to fall as supply increases.