Capstone Copper reported a mixed third quarter, with record adjusted EBITDA but a slight earnings miss. The company posted adjusted earnings of $0.12 per share, falling short of the $0.1308 forecast. Despite this, Capstone achieved record adjusted EBITDA of $358.3 million, marking its eighth consecutive quarterly record. Shares dropped 2.08% to $11.77, reflecting investor caution over higher costs and delayed project decisions.
The miner produced 45.2 thousand tonnes of copper in Q3, with realized prices averaging $3.61 per pound, above the LME average of $3.40. Operating momentum was strong at Mantoverde, which benefited from lower cash costs and high throughput post-optimization. However, Pinto Valley remained a challenge due to maintenance and a crusher rebuild. The company generated $280 million in free cash flow year to date and ended the quarter with over $1 billion in liquidity.
Management highlighted that 2026 production is expected to finish at the low end of guidance, while costs are likely to land at the high end. The ramp-up at Mantoverde Optimized is ahead of schedule, but higher input costs, particularly for diesel and sulfuric acid, are squeezing margins. The decision on the Santo Domingo project has been pushed back to Q1 2027, adding to investor concerns.
Capstone's strong balance sheet and cash flow helped limit the stock's decline. The company's net debt to EBITDA is expected to fall to about 0.2x by year-end after the Cozamin divestment closes. Looking ahead, Q4 is anticipated to be the strongest quarter of the year, supported by higher grades at Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos. Longer-term projects, including BIOX and Pyrite Augmentation, are also in the pipeline.