Carney’s LNG Export Push Highlights Canada’s Industrial Policy Ambitions

On September 14-15, Toronto hosted the Canada Investment Summit, where over a hundred attendees controlling more than $100 trillion in assets reviewed 167 projects from the Carney government’s pitchbook. Among these, four liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects and several related initiatives stood out, reflecting the federal government’s ambitious goal of building 100 million tonnes per year (mtpa) of LNG export capacity by 2034.

The Montney Play in British Columbia, containing an estimated 447 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, is central to this push. The federal government is heavily promoting LNG exports, even considering public financing and subsidies to make these projects viable. This strategy aims to boost gas production, which has been hindered by low prices in Canada’s domestic market.

Currently, LNG Canada, a 14 mtpa facility led by Shell and other international oil majors, is the only operational LNG export facility in Canada. It began exports in mid-2025 but has faced technical issues, including excessive gas flaring. Plans for a Phase 2 expansion, which would double its capacity, are now underway. Other projects, such as Cedar LNG and Woodfibre LNG, are also in development, with expected operations starting in 2028 and 2026, respectively.

The Montney deposit, one of the largest gas reserves in the world, poses significant environmental concerns. Fully exploiting it could emit nearly half a year’s worth of global CO2 emissions. The Carney government’s focus on LNG and AI data centers as drivers for gas demand highlights the tension between economic growth and environmental impact.