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CBOT Grain Futures Retreat Ahead of USDA Report

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Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reversed Tuesday’s gains as traders adjusted positions ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply and demand report, set for release on Friday. The average trade estimate for U.S. wheat ending stocks in 2026-27 is 722 million bushels, slightly higher than the USDA’s September estimate of 717 million bushels. Meanwhile, world wheat carryout was projected at 276.7 million tonnes, nearly matching the USDA’s previous estimate of 276.3 million tonnes. SovEcon revised its estimate of Russia’s wheat crop downward to 87.5 million tonnes, a decrease of 700,000 tonnes from its prior forecast.

Soybean prices also declined as forecasts predicted incoming moisture in the U.S. Midwest, potentially disrupting harvest operations over the weekend due to Tropical Storm Isaias. The trade estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks is 309 million bushels, down one million from the USDA’s September estimate. World soybean ending stocks were projected at 123.5 million tonnes, slightly below the USDA’s 124.0 million-tonne estimate. Brazil reported a 0.2% increase in soybean exports in September compared to last year, totaling 7.36 million tonnes, though this was a 25% drop from August.

Corn prices saw a slight dip, but the December contract closed above $5 per bushel. The average trade estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks stands at 1.694 billion bushels, higher than the USDA’s September projection of 1.567 billion. World corn ending stocks were estimated at 273.8 million tonnes, exceeding the USDA’s previous forecast of 272.1 million. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an increase in ethanol production, with daily output rising to 1.053 million barrels per day. South Korea issued a tender for 207,000 tonnes of corn, with submissions due by the end of the day.

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