Ceasefire Could Quickly Restart Most of Russia's Black Sea Grain Terminals

Russia's grain export infrastructure in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov has been severely damaged by Ukrainian attacks, but a ceasefire could allow up to 80% of its terminal capacity to be quickly restarted. According to an analysis by Reuters, three terminals accounting for about 20% of Russia's grain export infrastructure have suffered heavy damage and may take months to repair.

The affected terminals are NKHP in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which has annual capacity of 7.1 million metric tons and could take up to six months to repair; ZTKT at the Black Sea port of Taman, with annual capacity of 5.5 million tons; and a terminal in Taganrog on the Azov Sea. The other two Novorossiysk terminals, KSK and NZT, suffered minor damage and are ready to resume operations.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and disruption to shipments has driven up global grain prices and renewed concerns about food security linked to the war in Ukraine. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is leading an international effort by grain-importing countries to restore Black Sea grain trade.