Chicago corn futures are hovering near a four-month low, but buyers are hesitant to step in despite the lower prices. The weak demand for corn feed is being driven by a surge in cheaper Brazilian frozen chicken exports, which are displacing local poultry production in the Mediterranean and Middle East. As a result, fewer birds need feeding, reducing the demand for corn. This dynamic highlights a critical challenge for the market: low prices alone are not enough to revive consumption.
According to Bertrand Oesterle, Vice President of Clearing and Execution Sales at StoneX Financial Ltd, the shift in poultry trade is quietly reshaping the corn market. He notes that buyers in the Mediterranean and Middle East still perceive corn as expensive, which is dampening feed demand. A StoneX client emphasized the issue bluntly: "Chickens don't eat twice" once they are sold, meaning every imported chicken reduces local feed corn consumption.
Brazil's frozen chicken exports have climbed roughly 10%, reaching 4.51 million tons from January through October, up from 4.09 million tons in the same period last year. This increase is directly linked to the decline in feed demand in importing countries, as local poultry production is being replaced by cheaper Brazilian imports. Oesterle explains that "the live chickens, the production chicken, are basically being replaced by cheaper imports of frozen Brazilian origin."
Meanwhile, U.S. corn exports are lagging behind the pace needed to meet the U.S. Department of Agriculture's annual forecast. Even after significant purchases by South Korea and Mexico, totaling 543,000 tons and 315,000 tons respectively, exports remain insufficient. With the U.S. corn harvest 74% complete and Brazil's first corn crop already 63% planted, the market is facing an oversupply just as feed demand thins. StoneX estimates Brazil's 2026/27 corn season could reach a record 145.99 million tons, further pressuring prices.