Chief Economists Predict Middle East Conflict Resolution by Next Year

The 2026 Fortune Global 500 Summit brought together chief economists from top foreign institutions to discuss the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices and global monetary policy.

Nomura's Lu Ting believes that the current oil price spike is a temporary shock, and geopolitical tensions will ease by year-end into next year. He expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to pivot towards rate cuts at that point, while China retains room for further easing due to its low inflation levels.

Goldman Sachs' Shan Hui pointed out that high oil prices may remain elevated in the short term due to declining crude reserves, but forecasts a gradual downward trend in U.S. inflation and potential Fed rate cuts next year.

UBS Securities' Song Yu emphasized China's low-interest rate environment and its need for further rate cuts to stimulate growth. He also highlighted the importance of shifting investment towards renewable energy due to declining energy supply stability and rising oil prices.