Chile’s copper production is expected to see only a modest recovery next year after a historic slump, according to the state copper commission Cochilco. The agency cut its 2027 output forecast to 5.08 million metric tons, suggesting a 3% rebound. This year’s estimate was also slashed to 4.94 million tons from 5.27 million, marking an 8.4% annual drop due to accidents and wild weather.
The subdued outlook highlights the challenges facing Chile, which supplies over a fifth of global mined copper. The country’s output hit its lowest quarterly level in at least two decades in the three months through September. The downturn has been driven by issues at major mines operated by Codelco and BHP Group, which account for 77% of the net decline. Lower ore grades, maintenance, and processing interruptions have all contributed to the decline.
Despite the muted recovery, Chile’s production is expected to play a key role in a global mine supply improvement next year. Cochilco forecasts worldwide production to rise 3.4% in 2027 after contracting 0.6% this year. Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo together are projected to contribute about 37% of the increase.
The refined copper market will remain tight, with a surplus next year equivalent to just 0.8% of consumption. Demand for refined copper is forecast to grow 1.5% this year and 1.8% in 2027, with markets outside China accounting for about two-thirds of next year’s global demand growth. Against this backdrop, Cochilco raised its copper-price forecasts to $6.18 a pound for 2026 and $5.95 for 2027, up from $5.95 and $5.10 previously.