Chilean Floods Cut Copper Supply, Trump-Xi Meeting Looms
Global new energy vehicle (NEV) sales rose just 4% year-on-year in January to August 2026, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence via Reuters. US sales fell 21%, while China's fell 12%, but Europe grew 29% and the rest of the world doubled.
Copper held steady at $14,529 per tonne, just 2% below its five-year high. Chilean miners are targeting a 5-7% cut in output for 2026 due to El Niño-related flooding. This will leave a supply gap that cannot be filled within the current timeframe.
The US is responding with Project Vault, a $12 billion strategic critical mineral reserve, and considering copper tariff escalation. The Trump-Xi meeting on tariffs and critical minerals is set for 24 September.
A truce would weaken the US stockpiling bid, while escalation would widen the premium on non-Chinese supply. Neither outcome is knowable in advance, making position size a key variable for retail holders of producing copper miners.