China Faces Prolonged LNG Surplus Through Early 2030s

China is facing a persistent LNG surplus that is expected to continue into the early 2030s, making it one of the world's major LNG consumers. According to Quantum Commodity Intelligence, this structural imbalance will last for four to six years.

The Middle East conflict dominated talks at Gastech 2026, but long-term LNG deals were also announced during the conference. This surge in demand comes as global liquefied natural gas trade is expected to reach 800 billion cubic meters by 2031.

Spot LNG prices have surged to their highest levels since 2022 due to a supply crunch caused by Qatari cargo losses, leading to a bidding war. However, the implications of this surplus for China's energy market and global trade remain unclear.