China Gains Influence in Oil Markets as OPEC+'s Power Wanes Amid Iran War

The Iran war has significantly impacted the oil market, reducing OPEC+'s influence and ability to affect prices. Since the conflict began six months ago, the world's most powerful oil alliance has seen its market share decline by nearly 8%, from over 48% in February to about 40% in July.

This reduction is attributed to the war's impact on major export routes for Middle Eastern oil and damage to energy infrastructure in several OPEC countries. The Strait of Hormuz, a key export route for top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia and other members such as Iraq and Kuwait, has been effectively shut due to the conflict.

OPEC+ says its decisions are aimed at supporting market stability, but their efforts have had little effect on oil prices in recent months. In fact, China's reduction in crude imports has emerged as a dominant theme in 2026, helping balance oil markets amid what analysts describe as the worst-ever supply disruption.

China's decline in oil demand is significant, with purchases of roughly 400 million fewer barrels since the war began compared to the same period last year. This trend highlights China's growing role in balancing oil markets, a position once associated almost exclusively with OPEC+ as the world's swing producer.