War Erodes OPEC+'s Influence Over Oil Markets Amid Worst-Ever Supply Disruption

Since the Iran war began in late February, OPEC+ has found itself unable to influence oil markets as it once did. The group's market share and ability to affect prices have eroded due to the conflict.

OPEC+, which accounted for about 40% of global oil output in July, is now struggling to balance oil markets amid what analysts describe as the worst-ever supply disruption. Its core group of seven producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, makes up only a quarter of world oil output.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route for top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia and other members such as Iraq and Kuwait. This has reduced OPEC+'s ability to quickly raise or cut supply.

China's reduction in crude imports has emerged as one of the dominant themes of 2026, helping to balance oil markets. Since the war began, China has bought roughly 400 million fewer barrels of oil than during the same period last year.