China Holds Key to Success of US Iran Sanctions Campaign

Washington's pressure campaign against Iran may not rely on new penalties, but rather on whether China continues to buy Iranian oil while protecting its own economic interests.

The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not mention China directly when presenting the new 'Operation Economic Outcast' campaign, but Beijing has been the key market for Iranian crude. Estimates suggest that oil sales alone brought Tehran tens of billions of dollars last year, in addition to other areas of trade between the two countries.

Chinese authorities have traditionally opposed unilateral US sanctions, saying they have the right to conduct normal trade with their partners, including Iran and Russia.

The success of the campaign will depend largely on China's position, as Beijing has shown no willingness to serve as a direct mediator or join the US policy of maximum pressure. For Trump, this means that even limited support from Beijing in the economic confrontation with Iran will require complex diplomatic arrangements.