EIA Forecasts Normal Oil Output by Early 2027, But Hinges on End to Disruptions

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for August 2026. The forecast assumes that global oil output will return to nearly normal levels by the first quarter of 2027, with only a small deficit of 1.7 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in the Middle East.

However, this projection hinges on whether current outages remain at 10 MMb/d for an extended period. If these disruptions persist, it could significantly impact global energy markets.

The EIA notes that a substantial portion of the increase in global gas output since around 2018 has come from growth in US shale gas production. This trend has contributed to a significant shift in the global energy landscape.