China Stainless Steel Futures Extend Losses Amid Macro Uncertainty

China's stainless steel futures continued their downward trend for a fourth consecutive week, weighed down by persistent macro uncertainty. The benchmark contract opened at RMB 14,655/mt (about $2,175/mt) on August 10 and fell to RMB 14,245/mt (about $2,114/mt) at Friday's close, leaving the week down RMB 325/mt (roughly $48/mt), or 2.23%, from the prior Friday's close of RMB 14,570/mt (about $2,162/mt).

The uncertainty was exacerbated by a split Federal Reserve, with several officials taking a hawkish tone, while data pointed to a more dovish stance. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated that a rate hike is still needed and multiple hikes may be required to bring down inflation, while July's US CPI came in mild and bond markets priced the odds of a September hike down to roughly 40%.

The market also remained sensitive to geopolitical risks, with the Iran ceasefire dispute continuing to drag on. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and whether it will reopen fully and whether a ceasefire actually holds remain key variables shaping risk appetite, oil prices, and cost expectations across base metals.