China Tariff Framework Reveals Weak Demand for U.S. Cotton and Sorghum
China’s new 30-for-30 tariff framework underscores the significant decline in demand for certain U.S. agricultural exports, particularly cotton and sorghum, since 2024. Retired USDA economist Fred Gale warns that potential tariff relief may not swiftly restore lost demand. According to Gale, non-soybean agricultural products listed in China’s framework amounted to $11.6 billion in U.S. exports in 2024, a stark contrast to the $3.94 billion recorded from January through July 2026.
The data reveals steep drops in specific exports: cotton exports to China plummeted from $1.47 billion in 2024 to $187.7 million by July 2026. Sorghum exports fell from $1.23 billion to $884.8 million, while beef exports dropped from $1.19 billion to $43.4 million. Corn exports also saw a drastic decline, from $334 million to just $8.1 million. Gale highlights that China’s tariff-rate quota system remains a barrier for corn and wheat imports, even with potential tariff reductions.
The framework aims to enhance market access, but Gale emphasizes that rebuilding trade volumes will depend on multiple factors, including Chinese demand, quota administration, and the speed of tariff adjustments. He cautions that farm-level recovery for commodities like cotton and sorghum will require more than just tariff relief to reach previous trade levels.