China's Copper Inventories Rise Amid Regional Divergence

Copper inventories in China's major regions rose by 6,200 mt to 118,900 mt as of August 3, according to SMM weekly data. This marks a year-over-year increase of 17,000 mt compared to the same period last year.

The regional trends diverged, with Shanghai seeing increased arrivals of domestic copper and continuous replenishment from imported sources. However, weak downstream demand led to some inventory buildup in the region. In contrast, Jiangsu experienced limited arrivals, resulting in a modest destocking. Guangdong saw higher arrivals but consumption had not yet improved, keeping inventories on the rise.

The market outlook suggests that domestic and imported copper cathode arrivals are expected to rebound slightly in the short term, easing the tightness of circulating cargo. However, high copper prices are weighing on enterprises' production willingness, and downstream just-in-time procurement sentiment remains weak. As a result, China's electrolytic copper social inventory is expected to continue its buildup trend.