China's Grip on Cobalt Tightens as DRC Export Quota Shifts Market Power

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is home to approximately 70% of the world's mined cobalt, and China dominates its refining process. In fact, according to the International Energy Agency, China refined 78% of global cobalt output in 2024 despite mining almost none domestically. Chinese firms bridge this gap through direct ownership of Congolese mines, with companies like CMOC, Zijin Mining, and Huayou Cobalt controlling a significant portion of production.

The DRC's export quota regime has also shifted the balance of power in the cobalt market. Under Kinshasa's rules, the payable value of Congolese cobalt hydroxide moved from 55% to 100% of the metal price, benefiting producers in the DRC at the expense of Chinese refiners.

This concentration of exposure has far-reaching implications for global markets. A production problem at a single mine, such as the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex operated by Zijin Mining, can now move the global price of cobalt. In fact, flooding at this mine could cut output by as much as 57,000 tonnes in 2026.