China's Oil Demand Decline Accelerates with Third Consecutive Year Drop

China's oil demand is expected to decline for the third consecutive year in 2026, with a projected drop of 600,000 barrels per day, according to a recent forecast from Sinopec's Economics & Development Research Institute.

The report attributes the decline primarily to shrinking gasoline and diesel demand, with gasoline demand forecasted to fall by 8.7% to 149 million metric tons in 2026, while diesel demand is expected to drop by 11.4% to 164 million metric tons.

Jet fuel demand, however, is bucking the trend, with a projected increase of 1.3% in 2026 to 41.55 million metric tons.

The forecast suggests that China's oil consumption may have already peaked in 2025 and will continue to decline in the coming years, with estimates suggesting that it will fall below 750 million metric tons by 2030 and reach roughly 300 million metric tons by 2060.