Coal Demand Outlook Reshaped by Geopolitical Chokepoint and El Niño
The thermal coal demand outlook is being reshaped by three separate pressure systems. The first is a geopolitical chokepoint that has removed close to 20% of global LNG supply, caused by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026 due to infrastructure damage and Iranian drone strikes.
The second pressure system is an unusually strong El Niño event that is degrading hydropower output across South and Southeast Asia. The third is European gas storage running well below seasonal norms, which has pushed gas prices near €82.51/MWh in Europe and coal prices to $147/t in Newcastle.
The price transmission followed a clear path: the loading shortfall pushed European TTF and Asian JKM benchmarks toward levels comparable to the 2022-23 energy crisis. Once gas turned prohibitively expensive for power generation, thermal coal was pulled into a correlated rally.
The IEA Coal Mid-Year Update projects global coal demand to rise 1.2% in 2026 to 8.94 billion tonnes, with structural baseload growth in India and Southeast Asia driving the bulk of that growth.