Codelco audits copper output after potential double-counting error

Chile’s state-owned copper giant Codelco is investigating potential errors in its reported copper production figures for 2024 and 2025. The issue arose when an internal review discovered that material may have been counted twice as production in two of its divisions, Ministro Hales and Salvador. The company has enlisted EY to conduct an external audit to verify the numbers and determine if the inconsistency affects financial statements or operational reporting. Codelco has also reported its findings to Chile’s public prosecutor.

The concern over inflated production figures comes as Codelco seeks to restore trust after years of falling short on output targets and rising debt. Reuters reported that Codelco produced 1.33 million tons of copper from its own mines last year, though management aims to reach 1.7 million metric tons annually by 2030. The accuracy of these figures is crucial for market stability, as copper prices are influenced by global supply-demand models.

If the audit reveals lower production levels due to double-counting, it could tighten perceived supply and impact copper pricing. Traders may also increase the margin of error for Chilean supply forecasts, affecting near-term versus later delivery pricing and downstream signals like smelter treatment charges. The credibility of Codelco’s long-term production targets could also be called into question until reporting and execution improve.