A new report from Coface, a global financial services firm, predicts that copper and nickel prices could double by 2035 due to surging demand from construction, energy transition, and electrification. The report highlights significant supply deficits for aluminum, copper, and nickel, averaging around 10% of demand by 2035, as miners struggle to ramp up production.
Marcos Carias, North America economist at Coface, noted that US tariffs are part of a broader shift in metals trading, with governments imposing restrictions that tighten supply. The report suggests these deficits could lead to a prolonged bull market for industrial metals, driven by clean-energy technologies, data centers, electric vehicles, and grid expansion.
Supply is expected to increase modestly, with copper growing by 1% annually, nickel by 1.5%, and aluminum by just 0.4% until 2035. Meanwhile, demand is projected to grow at 1.8% annually for all three metals, accelerating under a net-zero emissions scenario. Clean-energy technologies could account for 35% of global copper and nickel demand by 2035.
The report attributes the supply-demand imbalance to longer permitting times for mining projects, trade restrictions, and weak incentives for expanding mining capacity. Coface estimates that copper could face a deficit of up to 17% by 2035, while nickel could see a deficit of nearly 35% due to battery manufacturing. Aluminum deficits are expected to range from 5 to 15 million tons, driven by industrial and energy constraints rather than resource scarcity.