Colombia Ditches Green Agenda, Focuses on Oil and Gas Revival

Colombia's energy transition experiment has hit a wall. Under President Gustavo Petro, the country made rapid strides in renewable energy development, expanding its installed capacity from approximately 200 megawatts in 2022 to over 4,300 megawatts by 2026.

The shift was part of the 'Just Energy Transition' agenda, which aimed to leapfrog conventional energy development and transition directly to renewables. However, this approach has had disastrous consequences for Colombia's hydrocarbon sector.

Key metrics from 2023 to 2025 tell a stark story: average domestic oil output declined by around 4%, natural gas import dependency surged from 3% of consumption in 2023 to 31% by 2025, and foreign direct investment in the combined mining and oil sectors contracted by 34%. Ecopetrol's net income dropped nearly 40% in 2025.

The gas import surge is a critical data point, highlighting the country's structural dependence on imported natural gas within just two years. This has significant implications for energy security and underscores the limits of accelerated decarbonisation in hydrocarbon-dependent states.