Conflict-Hit Oil Supply Crisis Deepens Amid Middle East Tensions

Nearly half of global oil supply comes from countries affected by conflict, highlighting the growing vulnerability of energy markets.

According to Reuters calculations based on IEA data, countries affected by conflicts involving Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Libya, and Venezuela produced around 45 million barrels per day in 2025, accounting for more than 43% of global oil supply.

The situation has intensified following US and Israeli attacks on Iran six months ago, which triggered the largest oil supply crisis on record. The disruption has yet to show a clear path toward resolution.

Disruptions in the Gulf have reduced oil flows by an estimated 5 million to 7 million barrels per day, while refining capacity has been reduced by roughly 10% due to conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine.