Conflict Zones Fuel Global Oil Crisis as Supply Disruptions Reach Record Levels

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have had a significant impact on global oil supplies. According to Reuters calculations, nearly half of the world's oil comes from countries affected by conflict in 2026. This is highlighted by the large-scale disruptions caused by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran six months ago.

The Russia-Ukraine war has also led to production and refining cuts, including in nearby Kazakhstan this year. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in Libya and US restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports at the start of 2026 have added further strain.

Countries affected by these conflicts produced about 45 million barrels per day of oil based on 2025 output, accounting for more than 43% of global supply. This has increased the world's reliance on US oil supplies, although that too has occasionally been disrupted by severe weather.