ConocoPhillips chairman forecasts higher oil price floor near $70 per barrel

ConocoPhillips chairman Ryan Lance predicted on October 5 that the oil price floor will rise to around $70 per barrel (bbl), with a midcycle West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price range of $65-70/bbl. Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Lance said US oil production could exceed 14-14.5 million barrels per day if prices stay near current levels. At the time, WTI was trading near $90/bbl, significantly above Lance's midcycle projection.

Lance noted that global oil demand may take until 2028 or 2029 to recover from the current crisis, with little to curb demand growth afterward. He highlighted concerns about the source of conventional production to meet this rising demand, emphasizing ConocoPhillips' focus on upstream investments over midstream.

The comments mark a slight upward adjustment from the company's earlier outlook. In April, ConocoPhillips had been using a midcycle WTI price of about $65/bbl but anticipated a higher price floor. Lance's remarks came amid elevated oil prices due to supply and shipping risks linked to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser also addressed the forum, warning of thin global inventories and persistent security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. Aramco unexpectedly cut its November official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by $3/bbl, its widest discount since June 2020, while raising prices for northwest Europe and keeping US-bound prices unchanged.