ConocoPhillips Chairman Sees $70 Oil Price Floor with Long Recovery Ahead

ConocoPhillips Chairman Ryan Lance has stated that the price floor for oil is now rising to around $70 per barrel, a significant shift from earlier forecasts. Before the Iran conflict, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) had predicted Brent crude would drop to $50 by early 2026, but Lance believes oil prices may not fall that low again for a long time, if ever.

Speaking at a forum in London, Lance highlighted that global oil supply and demand will take years to normalize. He expects the mid-cycle price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to be around $65-$70 per barrel. The conflict in Iran has pressured the global oil system, though not broken it, and Lance estimates it could take until 2028 or 2029 for demand to fully rebound.

ConocoPhillips is focusing more on upstream exploration, which involves finding and producing oil, rather than midstream investments. Meanwhile, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen to near its lowest levels since the 1980s, raising concerns about oil supply stability. Saudi Aramco's CEO, Amin Nasser, also noted that rebuilding global oil inventories could take up to two years.

Higher oil prices are boosting profits for major oil companies like ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil, with both reporting significant increases in earnings per share. This trend is making their stocks more attractive to investors, as higher prices allow for more free cash flow to pay down debt and return capital to shareholders. However, investors should monitor geopolitical factors, as the conflict in Iran has highlighted the strategic importance of oil routes and renewable energy development.