BloombergNEF’s Transition Metals Outlook 2026 reveals a significant shift in the global supply of metals critical to the energy transition. Nine of the ten materials studied are now expected to have sufficient supply capacity through 2050, a marked improvement from earlier forecasts. However, copper stands out as a major concern, with a projected supply deficit beginning in 2028 and widening to 20 million metric tons by 2050, equivalent to 44% of global demand. This shortfall could drive up prices, slow electrification, and force manufacturers to seek alternatives.
The report highlights that demand for copper is set to rise by 61% between 2026 and 2050, reaching nearly 46 million tons. The deficit could persist for decades due to the lengthy process of developing new mines, declining ore quality, and years of underinvestment in exploration. To address this, $332 billion in investment is needed to develop new copper mines.
Other key findings include a forecasted tripling of lithium demand by 2050 and a doubling of graphite demand, both driven by the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage. Advances in battery technology have reduced projected demand for cobalt and nickel. China dominates global metals refining, raising supply security concerns, as eight of the ten materials studied have more than half their refining capacity concentrated in a single country, seven of which are in China.
Recycling will play a crucial role in meeting future metals demand, with six of the ten materials requiring recycling by 2035 and eight by 2050. Short-term shortages remain a risk for some metals, including lithium and palladium, while government restrictions on cobalt and nickel production could further constrain availability.